Erie, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

183
FXUS61 KCLE 260746
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
346 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast. There is still potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms today and especially Monday,
but confidence in timing and placement of storms remains low.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms remain possible
today through Wednesday. Storms may reach strong to severe limits,
particularly later today through Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Broad upper level ridge sprawled across the western and central
CONUS with deep troughing over the Great Lakes and eastern
CONUS will usher in a period of active weather through mid-week.
Northwest flow will allow for a series of "ridge riders",
shortwaves aloft cresting over the ridge, to dive southeast into
the region. There will be numerous chances for showers and
thunderstorms, some strong to severe, beginning later today and
continuing through Wednesday. There remains a fair amount of
uncertainty with the timing and coverage of thunderstorms given
a wide range of model solutions.

For today, some diurnal showers and thunderstorms may develop south
of the Lake Erie lakeshore this afternoon and evening. There may be
an isolated severe weather threat if we are able to destabilize
enough given robust deep layer shear of 30-40 knots. During the
late evening and overnight hours we will be monitoring the
progression of an MCS diving southeast across Wisconsin and
Lower Michigan towards the Lower Great Lakes region. This MCS
will be following an instability gradient and may just clip our
local forecast area to the west. Future shifts will need to
monitor the latest hi-res guidance and upstream observations
with forecast updates likely needed for this timeframe. Overall
confidence in severe weather today through overnight remains
low. The SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for
severe weather today and tonight.

Confidence in strong to severe storms increases on Monday as a
surface low and cold front enter the region and provide additional
upper level support. Much of the forecast for Monday will heavily
depend on the outcome of the MCS tracking in the vicinity of the
region Sunday night into Monday morning. Upstream storm development
looks most probable along the aforementioned cold front across Lower
Michigan during the late afternoon and evening hours. These storms
are expected to congeal into an MCS and sink south towards northern
Indiana and western Ohio by Monday evening. Damaging wind gusts
remain the primary threat in thunderstorms that move into the
forecast region Monday evening. The SPC continues to highlight the
entire area in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather with
a corridor of higher probabilities for damaging wind gusts extending
across the western two-thirds of the forecast area.

Showers and thunderstorms remain possible on Tuesday while the
surface low slowly exits the the east. We`ll begin to dry out
by Wednesday as high pressure gradually enters from the west.
The exception will be a few showers across Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania on Wednesday in lingering troughing over
the lake.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Some 5SM BR at the terminals away form the lake towards morning
for a few hours, using TEMPO instead of prevailing. VFR, another
cumulus field this afternoon FL035-045. Winds WSW/W 10kts at the
surface. Convective chances increasing, especially after 00Z for
the western terminals as will have to watch incoming complexes
from the north, but no mention at terminals for now as chances
low through 06Z Monday

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periodic showers and
thunderstorms Sunday night through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
West southwest winds today 10kts lead to waves around 1ft, with
southwesterly winds picking up Monday into Monday night. Nearshore
zones will stay below 2ft for wave heights in those periods, but a
cold front coming through late Monday night into Tuesday morning
will bring winds out of the north 15-25kts, and a Small Craft
Advisory is likely to be needed with wave heights 3-5ft through
Wednesday night. Wind speeds out of the north decrease to 10-15kts
Thursday with wave heights gradually decreasing as well below SCA
criteria with light and variable winds expected Friday, and wave
heights finally less than 2ft.

There is a thunderstorm potential beginning late today through
Tuesday morning.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26